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Thursday, July 16, 2020 | History

4 edition of The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime found in the catalog.

The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime

Michael D. Bordo

The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime

long-run evidence, 1875-1997

by Michael D. Bordo

  • 77 Want to read
  • 8 Currently reading

Published by Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland in [Cleveland, Ohio] .
Written in English

    Subjects:
  • Stocks -- Prices.,
  • Bonds -- Prices.,
  • Economic forecasting.

  • Edition Notes

    StatementBy Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich.
    SeriesWorking paper ;, 04-02, Working paper (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland : Online) ;, 04-02.
    ContributionsHaubrich, Joseph Gerard, 1958-
    Classifications
    LC ClassificationsHB1
    The Physical Object
    FormatElectronic resource
    ID Numbers
    Open LibraryOL3476439M
    LC Control Number2005615956

    The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long-Run Evidence Michael D. Bordo Rutgers University Joseph G. Haubrich Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland 24 May 12 June The views in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland or the Federal Reserve System.   Author of The Gold standard, Bretton Woods and other monetary regimes, Exchange rate regime choice in historical perspective, The specie standard as a contingent rule, Keeping capital flowing, The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime, Money, History, and International Finance, Lessons for EMU from the history of monetary unions, The defining moment.

    The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions Jonathan H. Wright* Federal Reserve Board, Washington DC February Abstract: The slope of the Treasury yield curve has often been cited as a leading economic indicator, with inversion of the curve being thought of as a harbinger of a recession. This paper investigates why the slope of the yield curve predicts future economic activity in Germany and the United States. A structural VAR is used to identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, monetary policy and inflation scare shocks and to analyse their effects on the real, nominal and term premium components of the term spread and on.

      M.D. Bordo, J.G. HaubrichThe yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: long run evidence – NBER Working Paper (), p. Google Scholar.   But given how reliable the US yield curve has been in forecasting previous US recessions—inverting with a lead time of months before each of the last eight US recessions in year/2-year—ignoring a full yield curve inversion as a US recession indicator would require compelling counter evidence.


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The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime by Michael D. Bordo Download PDF EPUB FB2

"The Yield Curve, Recessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime," Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Working Paper no. Author: Michael Bordo, Joseph G. Haubrich. Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data.

We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place, something we measure by the persistence of inflation.

The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich NBER Working Paper No. April JEL Cited by: “ The Yield Curve, Recessions, and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime.” This working paper examines yield curves based on securities other than Treasury security and their ability to predict recessions.

“ Recession Probabilities.”. Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period.

This. The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence NBER Working Paper No. w Number of pages: 36 Posted: 03 May Last Revised: 04 Jul The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long run Evidence ” NBER Working Paper ().

The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long run Evidence ” NBER Working Paper By Michael D.

Bordo and Joseph G. HaubrichD. UPDATE Aug As of August 7,the yield curve was clearly in inversion in several factors. Fromwe see that the year yield is. The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: long run evidence – National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper Estrella, Arturo, Anthony P.

Rodrigues, and Sebastian Schich. How stable is the predictive power of the yield curve. Get this from a library. The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: long run evidence [Michael D Bordo; Joseph G Haubrich; National Bureau of Economic Research.].

What does the Yield Curve tell us about GDP growth?” (). Appendix B: Historical Data” (). The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long run Evidence ” NBER Working Paper (). The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: long-run evidence, By Michael D.

Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich Download PDF ( KB). Michael D. Bordo & Joseph G. Haubrich, "The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence ," NBER Working PapersNational Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. Get this from a library. The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: long run evidence [Michael D Bordo; Joseph G Haubrich; National Bureau of Economic Research.] -- "This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve predicts future growth.

The spread between corporate bonds and commercial paper reliably predicts. The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime long run evidence / "This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the yield curve.

the predictive ability of the yield curve in the U.S. was related to the monetary regime in place, we try to follow this question for Germany. Obviously, observing changes of monetary regimes over time adds additional evidence on the interrelation between predictability and credibility of regimes.

The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence Michael D. Bordo, Joseph G. Haubrich. NBER Working Paper No. Issued in April NBER Program(s):Development of the American Economy, Monetary EconomicsCited by:   Bordo, M D and J G Haubrich (), “The yield curve, recessions and the credibility of the monetary regime: Long-run evidence ”, NBER Working Paper No.

Bordo, M D and J G Haubrich (a), “Forecasting with the yield curve: Level, slope and output ”, Economics Letters   See the discussion in Jonathan H. Wright (), "The Yield Curve and Predicting Recessions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series (Washington, D.C.: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, March).

Return to text. Ben S. Bernanke, "The Global Saving Glut and the U.S. Current Account Deficit," Homer Jones Lecture, April. The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence By Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. HaubrichMichael D. Bordo and Joseph G.

HaubrichMichael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich. Abstract.Bordo, M.D. and J.G. Haubrich (), The yield curve, recessions, and the credibility of the monetary regime: Long-run evidence, Working Paper 04/02, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.

Hoffmann, W. G. (), Das Wachstum der deutschen Wirtschaft seit der Mitte des Request PDF | The Yield Curve, Recessions and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: Long Run Evidence | This paper brings historical evidence to bear on the stylized fact that the.